— WAILEA · MAKENA · SOUTH MAUI —
Wailea Real Estate
Q1 2026 Market Report
By Harrison McCandless
Coldwell Banker Global Luxury · April 2026
There's a particular kind of morning in Wailea — the light flat and gold across the golf course, the ocean a shade deeper than it should be, everything quiet before the day begins — where the place feels genuinely timeless. It doesn't feel like a market. It feels like a lifestyle.
And yet, if you're buying or selling here right now, the market matters enormously. Q1 2026 in Wailea was a market of contrasts. Sales volume picked up meaningfully from the depths of 2025. Serious buyers found real opportunities. Sellers who priced correctly moved their properties with surprising efficiency. But sellers who tested the market with aspirational pricing found little appetite — and a few quietly withdrew their listings altogether.
— SECTION ONE —
Condominiums
28 closed condo transactions across Wailea and Makena in Q1 2026 — a meaningful increase in volume from the same period last year. The price range was extraordinary: from $945,000 for a 2-bedroom at Grand Champions to $12,300,000 for a 4-bedroom at the new Makena Beach Club & Residences.
28 CLOSED SALES | $1.975M MEDIAN — WAILEA | 53 AVG DAYS ON MARKET | 98.6% LIST-TO-SALE RATIO |
Excluding Makena Beach Club — an ultra luxury new development that skews the averages — the median closed price for Wailea condos was $1,975,000, average $2,136,600, average DOM 53 days, and average price per square foot $1,553/SF. The spread from $895/SF at Grand Champions to $2,210/SF at La'i Loa reflects the enormous difference in product quality, views, finishes, and STR zoning between complexes.
Of the closed condo sales, two sold at exactly full list price, two sold within 2% of list, and two received modest reductions — an average of 98.6% of asking. Correctly priced properties are not being negotiated down dramatically. Buyers are making measured offers on realistic prices, not lowballing at will.
Q1 2026 sold price vs. list price across all closed transactions
Complex / Address | Type | Sold Price | Beds | SF | $/SF | DOM | Zoning |
Grand Champions #65 | Condo | $945,000 | 2/2 | 1,056 | $895 | 77 | Apt A-1 |
Wailea Ekahi I #13F | Condo | $1,475,000 | 1/2 | 966 | $1,527 | 30 | Apt A-1 |
Keala O Wailea #4-103 | Condo | $1,975,000 | 2/2 | 1,248 | $1,583 | 48 | Apt A-1 |
Makali'i at Wailea #7D | Condo | $2,438,000 | 3/3 | 1,574 | $1,549 | 36 | Apt A-1 |
La'i Loa #9A | Condo | $3,850,000 | 3/3 | 1,742 | $2,210 | 74 | Apt A-1 |
Makena Beach Club #BC-408 | Condo | $12,300,000 | 4/4.5 | 3,417 | $3,600 | 60 | New Dev. |
Active condo inventory stands at approximately 30 listings ranging from $1,150,000 to $6,350,000, with 6 pending sales — two at Wailea Point, two at Makena Surf, one at Wailea Ekahi, and one at Wailea Fairway Villas.
— SECTION TWO —
Single-Family Homes
Wailea and Makena recorded 9 single-family residential closings in Q1 2026 — the most active resort home market on Maui this quarter. The range ran from Kanani Wailea at the entry level to the highest sale in the Wailea Golf Estates. The two closings below show homes landing at 92–95% of list price after an average of 46 days on market.
WAILEA KAI $2,780,000 4 bed · 4 bath · 2,562 SF · $1,085/SF 68 days on market · 92.8% of list Original list: $2,995,000 | WAILEA KIALOA $2,565,000 3 bed · 2 bath · 1,955 SF · $1,312/SF 24 days on market · 95.2% of list Original list: $2,695,000 |
Active residential inventory is 13 listings ranging from $2,490,000 to $20,000,000, with two pending sales in Wailea Pualani Estates. Two listings were withdrawn in Q1 — both in the $3.2M–$3.75M range — a clear signal that sellers in that tier found limited buyer interest and chose to regroup rather than reduce.
The Wailea Beach Path looking toward the Wailea Beach Villas
— SECTION THREE —
Land & Lots
The land market delivered 3 closed sales in Q1 2026 totaling $10,225,000. All three sold at exactly list price — a notably clean set of transactions that signals conviction from buyers rather than negotiated compromises.
SOLD $1,025,000 22 Waikai St · Wailea Kai 8,276 SF lot · Mountain views | SOLD $4,000,000 468 Lanipa'ina Pl 16.2 acres · Mountain / Ocean views | SOLD $5,200,000 112 Waipao Rd · Makena 0.31-acre CPR · Mtn/Ocean views |
The $5,200,000 Makena parcel requires important context: this is a Condominium Property Regime (CPR) lot of 0.31 acres, carved out of the larger Makena Golf & Beach Club development — not a sale of the full acreage. Still, at $5.2M for under a third of an acre in Makena, this transaction speaks to the extraordinary land premium commanded by the Discovery Land Company project. These are not speculative buyers. This is institutional-grade capital moving purposefully into Makena's most exclusive address.
The $4,000,000 sale of a 16.2-acre parcel confirms genuine appetite for large land holdings in this corridor. When full-list-price land sales happen at this scale, it signals real buyer conviction.
Active Land Inventory
There are currently 10 active land listings ranging from $920,000 to $37,000,000. Excluding the 160-acre Makena Rd outlier at $37M, the active range runs $920,000 to $9,950,000 across Wailea Pualani, Makena Landing, One Palauea Bay, Po'olenalena, and Keauhou. Three beachfront Makena Rd parcels are priced between $3.4M and $3.95M for roughly half an acre each — the premium commanded by that address remains extraordinary.
— SECTION FOUR —
What I'm Seeing on the Ground
"The buyers who found the best values in Wailea after 2009 weren't the ones who waited for the absolute bottom. They were the ones who recognized a reasonable price on an exceptional property and made a decision." |
I walk these streets and golf course paths regularly. I preview properties here. I sit with buyers from Seattle, Calgary, and California who have been watching this market for one to three years and are now deciding whether Q1 or Q2 of 2026 is their moment. Here's my honest read.
The apartment-zoned STR condos are still carrying the scars of 2025. Grand Champions, Ekolu, and Palms at Wailea — all zoned A-1, permitted for short-term rental under current county code until 2030 — have not recovered from the anxiety and new reality created by Bill 9. The Grand Champions unit that sold at $945,000 — the lowest-priced Wailea condo close in Q1 — is a concrete example of that dynamic. Buyers are pricing in legislative risk, which means sellers absorb a discount whether they like it or not.
Hotel-zoned properties are a completely different story. Polo Beach Club, Wailea Beach Villas, Ho'olei at Grand Wailea, and Makena Surf are holding value meaningfully better. These properties carry no Bill 9 risk. The Polo Beach Club unit at $5,300,000 hasn't moved its asking price in 94 days. That's a seller who understands their leverage.
La'i Loa is proving its value. The $3,850,000 full-price close on a 3-bedroom at La'i Loa — 1,742 SF, completed 2024 — at $2,210/SF is the most important data point for understanding where Wailea's best new product is trading. That number reflects a genuine premium for new construction and modern design.
The Makena premium is operating in its own universe. The $12.3M Makena Beach Club condo at $3,600/SF — and the $5.2M CPR lot at the same project — tell you that the ultra-luxury end of Makena is not subject to the same forces weighing on the broader market. Discovery Land Company buyers are not rate-sensitive. They're buying something rare, private, and finite.
— SECTION FIVE —
Four Factors Shaping This Market
I. Bill 9 — Still the Defining Dividing Line
Maui County's Bill 9 phases out STRs in apartment-zoned districts starting in 2030 for South Maui. Hotel-zoned properties (Wailea Beach Villas, Ho'olei, Polo Beach Club, Makena Surf, Wailea Elua) are trading at a clear premium to A-1 zoned properties. Until there is legislative clarity, this discount will persist. Buyers evaluating A-1 condos need to make a deliberate choice: if your use case doesn't depend on STR income, that legislative anxiety isn't your problem — and the pricing advantage is very real.
II. Rates and the Mortgage Equation
The Federal Reserve hasn't moved as aggressively as buyers were hoping. Rates remain elevated enough that the leveraged buyer feels the monthly cost. Cash buyers — a significant share of Wailea transactions — are less affected. The rate environment is lengthening decision timelines and, in some cases, narrowing the qualified buyer pool for mid-range properties.
III. Geopolitical Uncertainty
The Iran conflict introduced real hesitation into the market in late Q1. When buyers are uncertain about the world, they tend to pause discretionary purchases. The momentum that built in January and February softened in March. I expect this effect to be transitory, but I'm watching pending activity carefully heading into Q2.
IV. The Makena Golf & Beach Club Effect
Discovery Land Company's project continues to transact in ways that create statistical noise for the broader Wailea/Makena figures. The $12.3M condo close and $5.2M CPR lot sale in Q1 reflect a specific ultra-luxury buyer profile. They also send an important signal: the very top of South Maui is alive and moving — and that confidence radiates down through the market.
— SECTION SIX —
For Buyers & Sellers
FOR BUYERS An Honest Window This is one of the better buying environments Wailea has seen since before COVID. You have inventory, time, and negotiating room. The clearest opportunity is in the $1M–$2.5M apartment-zoned range, where Bill 9 anxiety has created pricing that reflects a worst-case scenario. If your use case doesn't depend on STR income, that anxiety is not your problem — and the pricing benefit is very real. For residential, nine closings in Q1 with 13 active homes gives you genuine selection. The best opportunities are homes sitting 60–90 days with sellers who came in too high and are now realistic. | FOR SELLERS Price Is Marketing If you priced at market in Q1, you likely found a buyer within 30–75 days. If you priced above market, you're still sitting. The canceled and expired listings are not anecdotal — they're a clear signal. The single most important thing I tell every Wailea seller right now: your price is your best marketing. Buyers in this market are sophisticated and have been watching for months. They know the comps. Presentation matters enormously. Buyers are not doing work. They are not overlooking deferred maintenance. If your property needs something done, do it before listing. |
— SECTION SEVEN —
Looking Ahead: Q2 2026
The Wailea market has positive structural underpinnings that I don't think the current macro headwinds will override for long. Limited land supply, world-class amenities, year-round sunshine, and a global luxury buyer base with genuine demand for what this place offers — those fundamentals haven't changed.
WHAT I'M WATCHING IN Q2 The trajectory of geopolitical stability · Federal Reserve rate movement · Further legislative clarity on Bill 9 · Spring buyer activity from top feeder markets. If even one of these variables moves favorably, I expect buyer activity to accelerate meaningfully. |
Broader Maui context: March 2026 island-wide data from the REALTORS® Association of Maui showed single-family home sales up 57% year-over-year to 77 closings — the highest monthly total since October 2022. Condo sales were up 21% year-over-year. Volume is recovering. Prices are still adjusting in some segments, but the direction of travel in transaction volume is clearly positive.
The inquiries are coming in. The buyers are out there. The question is what finally moves them from watching to acting — and in my experience, it's almost never the perfect moment. It's a specific property at a price that makes sense.
COLDWELL BANKER GLOBAL LUXURY Let's Talk About Your Next Move Whether you're evaluating a specific complex, thinking about selling, or just keeping track of where your investment stands — I'm happy to walk through the data with you. No pressure, just clarity. Harrison McCandless Top 2% Worldwide · Coldwell Banker Global Luxury |
